Montag, 5. Februar 2018

Slow Mo Piquet: Initiative statistics Turn 1-5

One of the striking aspects of Piquet is the random initiative pip assignment. This seems to raise eyebrows for first-time players, and I didn't dare go for the rules as written, either, going for a house rule to split the initiative between winner and loser roughly 2:1.
I understand that much more statistics are needed to check how fair the written rules approach is vs the various house rules, but I can't resist writing up some quick stats based on the first five turns of my detailed play-by-play.

Overall, very hard ini swings are only weakly balanced by the house rule and late-in-the-phase rolls often use up all remaining pips for one side. 
Turn two phase 1-2 added up balance out perfectly, but phase and 4 which went completely to Empire by the die rolls and the house rule only compensated for that very little.
Turn 3 overall was won by the Empire in house rules, by as much as the Prussians would have won in standard rules.
Turn 4: overall, 1 pip difference between house rules and standard.
Turn 5: all phases but the second favor the Prussians, the house rules mean the swing in favor of the Empire in phase 2 is reduced, which nearly counteracts all of the other splits in favor of the Empire.

So, as expected, the house rules smooth out the swings a little bit, but actually increased the overall inequality from 2% as per standard to 10% as per house rules. So much for fiddling with rules you don't quite understand yet...

Turn
Roll E
Roll P
House Pips E
House Pips P
Rule Pips E
Rule Pips P
Turn 1 16 15 1 0 1 0
Phase 1 16 15 1 0 1 0
Roll 1 7 6 1 0 1 0
Roll 2 9 9 0 0 0 0
Turn 2 115 97 34 26 38 22
Phase 1 26 37 9 11 4 16
Roll 1 8 6 2 0 2 0
Roll 2 2 11 3 6 0 9
Roll 3 5 12 2 5 0 7
Roll 4 11 8 2 0 2 0
Phase 2 59 57 10 10 14 6
Roll 1 20 15 4 1 5 0
Roll 2 18 19 0 1 0 1
Roll 3 14 5 6 3 9 0
Roll 4 7 18 0 5 0 5
Phase 3 30 3 15 5 20 0
Roll 1 18 2 11 5 16 0
Roll 2 12 1 4 0 4 0
Phase 4 39 15 16 4 20 0
Roll 1 5 3 2 0 2 0
Roll 2 20 7 9 4 13 0
Roll 3 14 5 5 0 5 0
Turn 3 73 76 21 17 16 22
Phase 1 35 31 12 8 10 10
Roll 1 12 7 4 1 5 0
Roll 2 10 20 3 7 0 10
Roll 3 13 4 5 0 5 0
Phase 2 38 45 9 9 6 12
Roll 1 6 16 3 6 0 9
Roll 2 8 4 3 1 4 0
Roll 3 4 2 2 0 2 0
Roll 4 2 5 1 2 0 3
Roll 5 18 18 0 0 0 0
Turn 4 70 53 21 12 22 11
Phase 1 37 33 12 8 9 11
Roll 1 7 10 1 2 0 3
Roll 2 5 8 1 2 0 3
Roll 3 6 11 1 4 0 5
Roll 4 19 4 9 0 9 0
Phase 2 33 20 9 4 13 0
Roll 1 17 4 9 4 13 0
Roll 2 16 16 0 0 0 0
Turn 5 198 223 44 54 39 59
Phase 1 44 51 9 11 8 12
Roll 1 8 2 4 2 6 0
Roll 2 8 17 3 6 0 9
Roll 3 8 6 2 0 2 0
Roll 4 13 14 0 1 0 1
Roll 5 7 12 0 2 0 2
Phase 2 52 44 11 9 14 6
Roll 1 15 12 2 1 3 0
Roll 2 7 9 0 2 0 2
Roll 3 12 16 1 3 0 4
Roll 4 18 7 8 3 11 0
Phase 3 48 54 8 12 7 13
Roll 1 16 17 0 1 0 1
Roll 2 4 14 3 7 0 10
Roll 3 10 3 5 2 7 0
Roll 4 18 20 0 2 0 2
Phase 4 28 38 8 12 5 15
Roll 1 11 6 4 1 5 0
Roll 2 10 17 2 5 0 7
Roll 3 7 15 2 6 0 8
Phase 5 26 36 8 10 5 13
Roll 1 8 3 4 1 5 0
Roll 2 8 19 3 6 0 9
Roll 3 10 14 1 3 0 4
Totals 472 464 121 109 116 114

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